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空间负荷预测中确定元胞负荷合理最大值的CEEMD方法
作者:
作者单位:

1.东北电力大学电气工程学院,吉林省吉林市 132012;2.北华大学计算机科学技术学院,吉林省吉林市 132021;3.国网吉林省电力有限公司吉林供电公司,吉林省吉林市 132001

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金资助项目(51177009);吉林省产业创新专项基金资助项目(2019C058-7);吉林省教育厅科技项目(JJKH20180442KJ)。


A CEEMD Method for Ascertaining Reasonable Maximum Value of Cellular Load in Spatial Load Forecasting
Author:
Affiliation:

1.School of Electrical Engineering, Northeast Electric Power University, Jilin 132012, China;2.School of Computer Science and Technology, Beihua University, Jilin 132021, China;3.Jilin Power Supply Company, State Grid Jilin Electric Power Company Co., Ltd., Jilin 132001, China

Fund Project:

This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51177009), Industrial Innovation Foundation of Jilin Province (No. 2019C058-7) and Scientific Item of Education Bureau of Jilin Province (No. JJKH20180442KJ).

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    摘要:

    针对实测的元胞负荷数据中存在随机波动现象而使空间负荷预测精度降低的问题,提出一种利用互补集合经验模态分解(CEEMD)和游程检验技术确定元胞负荷合理最大值的方法。该方法通过互补集合经验模态分解技术将各Ⅰ类元胞负荷序列分别进行分解,每个Ⅰ类元胞得到一组本征模态分量,采用游程检验技术对每个本征模态分量进行随机性检验,建立识别其中高频分量的判据,剔除刻画元胞负荷随机波动性的高频本征模态分量,对余下表征元胞负荷规律性与趋势性的本征模态分量进行重构得到主体分量,将其中最大值作为Ⅰ类元胞负荷合理最大值,最后利用该合理最大值进行基于Ⅰ类元胞和Ⅱ类元胞的空间负荷预测。工程实例表明了该方法正确有效。

    Abstract:

    In view of the problem that the spatial load forecasting accuracy is reduced due to the random fluctuation in the measured cellular load data. A method for ascertaining the reasonable maximum value of cellular load by using complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition and runs test technique is proposed. The method decomposes each class Ⅰ cellular load sequence by complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition technique. Each class Ⅰ cell obtains a set of intrinsic mode functions. Random test of each intrinsic mode function is carried out by using runs test technique, and the criterion for identifying the high-frequency component is established. The high-frequency intrinsic mode function that characterizes the random fluctuation of the cellular load is removed, and the remaining intrinsic mode functions that characterize the regularity and trend of the cellular load are reconstructed to obtain the main component, and the maximum value is taken as the reasonable maximum value of the class Ⅰcellular load. Finally, the reasonable maximum value is used to predict the space load based on class Ⅰ cells and class Ⅱ cells. The engineering example shows that the method is correct and effective.

    表 3 Ⅰ类元胞负荷的总体预测误差Table 3 Overall forecasting errors of class Ⅰ cellular load
    表 8 Table 8
    表 5 Ⅱ类元胞负荷的总体预测误差Table 5 Overall forecasting errors of class Ⅱ cellular load
    表 4 Ⅱ类元胞负荷预测结果Table 4 Forecasting results of class Ⅱ cellular load
    表 1 各I类元胞年负荷最大值Table 1 Maximum annual load of class I cells
    表 6 Table 6
    表 7 Table 7
    表 2 Ⅰ类元胞负荷预测结果Table 2 Forecasting results of class Ⅰ cellular load
    图1 基本原理图Fig.1 Diagram of basic principle
    图2 用地信息及Ⅰ类元胞示意图Fig.2 Diagram of the land information and class Ⅰ cells
    图3 Ⅱ类元胞示意图Fig.3 Diagram of the class Ⅱ cells
    图4 Ⅱ类元胞负荷准实测值与预测值Fig.4 Quasi-measured and predicted values of class Ⅱ cellular load
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引用本文

肖白,梁雪峰,姜卓,等.空间负荷预测中确定元胞负荷合理最大值的CEEMD方法[J].电力系统自动化. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20190521008.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-05-21
  • 最后修改日期:2020-02-13
  • 录用日期:2019-10-14
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