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空间负荷预测中确定元胞负荷合理最大值的CEEMD方法
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作者单位:

1.东北电力大学 电气工程学院 电力系;2.东北电力大学;3.北华大学 计算机科学技术学院;4.国网吉林省电力有限公司 吉林供电公司 营销部;5.国网吉林省电力有限公司 吉林供电公司 发展策划部

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目);吉林省产业创新专项基金项目;吉林省教育厅科技项目


A CEEMD Method for Ascertaining Reasonable Maximum Value of Cellular Load in Spatial Load Forecasting
Author:
Affiliation:

1.School of Electrical Engineering,Northeast Electric Power University;2.School of Computer Science and Technology,Beihua University;3.Jilin Power Supply Company,State Grid Jilin Electric Power Company Co,Ltd

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    摘要:

    针对若直接使用元胞负荷实测数据中的年最大值进行城市电网空间负荷预测,则极有可能将测量、通信等误差造成的随机波动带入预测结果,而导致预测精度降低的问题,提出一种利用互补集合经验模态分解和游程检验技术确定元胞负荷合理最大值的方法。该方法通过分析I类元胞历史负荷数据,结合互补集合经验模态分解技术将各I类元胞负荷序列分别进行分解,每个I类元胞得到一组本征模态分量,采用游程检验技术对每个本征模态分量进行随机性检验,建立识别其中高频分量的判据,剔除刻画元胞负荷随机波动性的高频本征模态分量,对余下表征元胞负荷规律性与趋势性的本征模态分量进行重构得到主体分量,将主体分量最大值作为I类元胞负荷合理最大值,最后利用该合理最大值进行基于I类元胞的空间负荷预测,并通过网格化技术得到基于II类元胞的空间负荷预测结果。工程实例表明了该方法是正确有效的。

    Abstract:

    For the spatial load forecasting of urban power grids if the annual maximum value in the measured data of the cellular load is directly used, it is highly probable that the random fluctuation caused by errors such as measurement and communication will be brought into the prediction result, which leads to the problem of lowering the prediction accuracy. A method for determining the reasonable maximum value of cellular load by using complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition and runs test technique is proposed. The method decomposes each class I cellular load sequence by analyzing the historical load data of the class I cells and the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition technique. Each class I cell obtains a set of intrinsic mode functions and uses runs test technique for each intrinsic mode function. The intrinsic mode function is tested for randomness, and the criterion for identifying the high-frequency component is established. The high-frequency intrinsic mode function that characterizes the random fluctuation of the cellular load is removed, and the remaining regularity and trend of the cellular load are analyzed. The intrinsic mode function is reconstructed to obtain the main component, and the maximum value of the main component is taken as the reasonable maximum value of the class I cellular load. Finally, the reasonable maximum value is used to predict the space load based on class I cells, and spatial load forecasting results based on class II cells are obtained by grid technology. The engineering example shows that the method is correct and effective.

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引用本文

肖白,梁雪峰,姜卓,等.空间负荷预测中确定元胞负荷合理最大值的CEEMD方法[J].电力系统自动化. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20190521008.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2019-05-21
  • 最后修改日期:2020-02-13
  • 录用日期:2019-10-14
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