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新型电力系统多元用户的用电特征建模与用电负荷预测综述
作者:
作者单位:

1.天津大学电气自动化与信息工程学院,天津市300072;2.上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院,上海市200240;3.东北电力大学电气工程学院,吉林省吉林市132012

摘要:

新型电力系统下,能源消费模式逐渐多样化,用户用电行为特征更加多元与复杂,增加了电力系统负荷精准预测的难度。聚焦新型电力系统环境下的多元用户侧的柔性负荷资源,总结并分析了现有的多元用户的用电特征建模技术和用电负荷预测技术。首先,从多源数据采集与预处理、用电特征提取、用户群体分类、关联因素分析4个环节对多元用户的用电特征建模技术进行归纳分析,总结了技术发展现状及存在问题。其次,分析了考虑需求响应的用电负荷预测发展趋势,并从多元用户侧的荷性可调资源和源性负荷资源两个方面对用电负荷预测技术进行了归纳分析,总结了多种类型用电负荷预测的研究思路。最后,讨论了新型电力系统下多元用户用电特征建模与用电负荷预测研究所面临的挑战,并结合新型电力系统和人工智能方法的特点,给出了参考性的建议与展望。

关键词:

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划资助项目(2021YFB2401200)。

通信作者:

作者简介:

孔祥玉(1978—),男,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向:电力系统优化运行、新能源发电、智能配用电。E-mail:eekongxy@tju.edu.cn
马玉莹(1994—),女,博士研究生,主要研究方向:用电大数据分析。E-mail:shinyying@tju.edu.cn
艾芊(1969—),男,通信作者,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向:虚拟电厂规划与运行、大数据与数字孪生。E-mail:aiqian@sjtu.edu.cn


Review on Power Consumption Characteristics Modeling and Load Forecasting of Power Consumption for Diverse Users in New Power System
Author:
Affiliation:

1.School of Electrical and Information Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;2.School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China;3.School of Electrical Engineering, Northeast Electric Power University, Jilin 132012, China

Abstract:

Under the new power system, energy consumption patterns are gradually diversified, and the characteristics of power consumption behaviors for users are more diverse and complex, which increases the difficulty of accurate load forecasting in the power system. This paper focuses on the flexible load resources on the diverse user side in the new power system environment, summarizes and analyses the power consumption characteristics modeling technique and load forecasting technique of power consumption for diverse users. Firstly, the power consumption characteristics modeling technique for diverse users is analyzed from four aspects: diverse data collection and pre-processing, extraction of power consumption features, classification of user groups, and analysis of correlation factors, and the current state of technical development and existing problems are summarized. Secondly, the development trend of load forecasting of power consumption considering demand response is analyzed, and the load forecasting techniques of power consumption are analyzed from two aspects: load adjustable resources and source load resources on the diverse user side, and the research ideas of various types of load forecasting of power consumption are summarized. Finally, the challenges faced by research on power consumption characteristics modeling technique and load forecasting of power consumption for diverse users in the new power system are discussed, and reference suggestions and outlooks are given considering the characteristics of the new power system and artificial intelligence methods.

Keywords:

Foundation:
This work is supported by National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2021YFB2401200).
引用本文
[1]孔祥玉,马玉莹,艾芊,等.新型电力系统多元用户的用电特征建模与用电负荷预测综述[J].电力系统自动化,2023,47(13):2-17. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20230312004.
KONG Xiangyu, MA Yuying, AI Qian, et al. Review on Power Consumption Characteristics Modeling and Load Forecasting of Power Consumption for Diverse Users in New Power System[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2023, 47(13):2-17. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20230312004.
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  • 收稿日期:2023-03-13
  • 最后修改日期:2023-05-08
  • 录用日期:2023-05-19
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-06-28
  • 出版日期: