文章摘要
马瑞,李文晔,李晅,等.分布式冷热电联供系统负荷随机模糊建模[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(15):53-58. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20151021001.
MA Rui,LI Wenye,LI Xuan, et al.Random Fuzzy Model for Load of Distributed Combined Cooling, Heating and Power System[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(15):53-58. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20151021001.
分布式冷热电联供系统负荷随机模糊建模
Random Fuzzy Model for Load of Distributed Combined Cooling, Heating and Power System
DOI:10.7500/AEPS20151021001
关键词: 冷热电联供  分布式电源  随机模糊变量  以热定电
KeyWords: combined cooling, heating and power(CCHP)  distributed generator  random fuzzy variable  following thermal load
上网日期:2016-03-17
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(51277015)
作者单位E-mail
马瑞 长沙理工大学电气与信息工程学院, 湖南省长沙市 410004 marui818@126. com 
李文晔 长沙理工大学电气与信息工程学院, 湖南省长沙市 410004  
李晅 长沙理工大学电气与信息工程学院, 湖南省长沙市 410004  
吴瑕 长沙理工大学电气与信息工程学院, 湖南省长沙市 410004  
秦泽宇 长沙理工大学电气与信息工程学院, 湖南省长沙市 410004  
摘要:
      基于天然气的冷热电联供(CCHP)系统负荷随机性和模糊性共存,有效提取其不确定特征对CCHP系统优化调度运行有重要意义。文中提出一种分布式CCHP系统负荷随机模糊建模的方法。首先基于CCHP系统冷热电负荷历史数据,发现其可以用n阶正态分布加权和方法描述其概率分布特征,并获得电负荷与冷热负荷的概率密度函数,进一步分析该函数的参数,可知其不具有完全的统计性质,因而具有认识意义的模糊性,通过对参数的隶属函数和机会测度函数特征的提取,从而定义电负荷与冷热负荷为随机模糊变量;其次分析电负荷与冷热负荷两类变量之间的耦合特性;最后结合随机模糊模型及各类负荷间的耦合特性,提出了CCHP系统接入电网负荷随机模糊建模方法及其相应建模步骤。湖南省某市接入10 kV的CCHP系统的历史负荷数据样本仿真结果验证了该模型的有效性和正确性。
Abstract:
      In view of the coexistence of randomness and fuzziness for the natural gas based distributed combined cooling, heating and power(CCHP)system load, effective extraction of its uncertain characteristics is of great significance for system optimum scheduling and operation. A random and fuzzy modeling method is proposed. First, based on historical CCHP cold/heat/electricity load data, it has been found that the probability distribution characteristics can be described by weighted sum of n-stage normal distribution, and the probability density functions of electricity load and cold/heat load are obtained. Further, the function parameters are analyzed and found without complete statistical property but epistemically obscure. By extracting the characteristics of the membership function and the credibility density function of parameters, the electricity load and cold/heat load are defined as random-fuzzy variables. Based on following the thermal load(FTL), the coupling characteristics between electric load and cool/heat load are analyzed, so the random-fuzzy model for daily exchange power of CCHP with power system is proposed and the corresponding random-fuzzy simulation method given. Case study is carried out based on operation and load data from a CCHP connected to a 10 kV bus in a city in Hunan Province, The effectiveness and validity of the proposed model is proved by simulation results. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 51277015)
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