文章摘要
陈艳波,谢瀚阳,王金丽,等.基于不确定测度的电力系统抗差状态估计:(一)理论基础[J].电力系统自动化,2018,42(1):8-15. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20161213006.
CHEN Yanbo,XIE Hanyang,WANG Jinli, et al.Uncertain Measure Based Robust State Estimation of Power System Part One Theoretical Principle[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2018,42(1):8-15. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20161213006.
基于不确定测度的电力系统抗差状态估计:(一)理论基础
Uncertain Measure Based Robust State Estimation of Power System Part One Theoretical Principle
DOI:10.7500/AEPS20161213006
关键词: 状态估计  不确定测度  不确定理论  正常率  偏离度
KeyWords: state estimation  uncertain measure  uncertainty theory  normal rate  deviation
上网日期:2017-11-24
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(51407069);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2016YQ02)
作者单位E-mail
陈艳波 华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院, 北京市 102206 yanbochen2008@sina.com 
谢瀚阳 广东电网有限责任公司信息中心, 广东省广州市 510600  
王金丽 中国电力科学研究院有限公司, 北京市 100192  
王鹏 中国电力科学研究院有限公司, 北京市 100192  
薛儒涛 华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院, 北京市 102206  
王若兰 华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院, 北京市 102206  
摘要:
      传统电力系统状态估计的理论基础是传统统计学的大数定律,即当量测量的数目趋近于无穷大时,估计值以概率为1逼近于真值。而实际系统中量测量的数目有限,有时甚至是小样本,此时传统状态估计的评价指标和估计精度没有理论上的保证。针对这种情况,引入不确定理论体系下不确定测度概念,阐述了在状态估计中不确定测度与测量不确定度和量测误差的区别与联系;进一步在不确定理论体系下,重新给出了正常测点、异常测点、测点正常率的定义,并提出考虑正常率和量测量偏离真值程度的新的状态估计结果评价指标,证明了其合理性。
Abstract:
      The theoretical basis of traditional power system state estimation is the law of large numbers based on traditional statistics, that is, when the number of measurements approaches infinity, the estimated value approximates to the true value with 1 probability. However, the number of measurements in the actual system is limited and sometimes even small, there is no theoretic guarantee for the evaluation index and estimation precision of the traditional state estimation. In view of this situation, the paper introduces the concept of uncertain measure under the uncertainty theory system, and explains the difference and relation among the uncertain measure, uncertainty of measurement and measurement error in the state estimation. Furthermore, the normal measurement, abnormal measurement and normal rate are redefined under the uncertainty theory system. And a new evaluation index of state estimation result considering the normal rate and the measurement deviation degree from the true value is proposed and the rationality is proved.
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