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A Method for Ascertaining Reasonable Maximum Value of Cellular Load in Spatial Load Forecasting
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Affiliation:

1.School of Electrical Engineering, Northeast Electric Power University, Jilin 132012, China;2.College of Computer Science and Technology, Beihua University, Jilin 132021, China;3.Jilin Power Supply Company of State Grid Jilin Electric Power Supply Company, Jilin 132001, China

Fund Project:

This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51177009), Industrial Innovation Foundation of Jilin Province (No. 2019C058-7) and Scientific Item of Education Bureau of Jilin Province (No. JJKH20180442KJ).

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    Abstract:

    Aiming at the problem that the spatial load forecasting accuracy is reduced due to the random fluctuation in the measured cellular load data, a method for ascertaining the reasonable maximum value of cellular load by using complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition and runs test technique is proposed. The method decomposes each class Ⅰ cellular load sequence by complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition technique. Each class Ⅰ cell obtains a set of intrinsic mode functions. Random test of each intrinsic mode function is carried out by using runs test technique, and the criterion for identifying the high-frequency component is established. The high-frequency intrinsic mode function that characterizes the random fluctuation of the cellular load is removed, and the remaining intrinsic mode functions that characterize the regularity and trend of the cellular load are reconstructed to obtain the main component, and the maximum value is taken as the reasonable maximum value of the class Ⅰcellular load. Finally, the reasonable maximum value is used to predict the space load based on class Ⅰ cells and class Ⅱ cells. The engineering example shows that the method is correct and effective.

    表 3 Ⅰ类元胞负荷的总体预测误差Table 3 Overall forecasting errors of class Ⅰ cellular load
    表 8 Table 8
    表 5 Ⅱ类元胞负荷的总体预测误差Table 5 Overall forecasting errors of class Ⅱ cellular load
    表 4 Ⅱ类元胞负荷预测结果Table 4 Forecasting results of class Ⅱ cellular load
    表 1 各Ⅰ类元胞年负荷最大值Table 1 Maximum annual loads of class Ⅰ cells
    表 6 Table 6
    表 7 Table 7
    表 2 Ⅰ类元胞负荷预测结果Table 2 Forecasting results of class Ⅰ cellular load
    图1 基本原理图Fig.1 Diagram of basic principle
    图2 用地信息及Ⅰ类元胞示意图Fig.2 Schematic diagrams of land information and class Ⅰ cells
    图3 Ⅱ类元胞示意图Fig.3 Schematic diagram of class Ⅱ cells
    图4 Ⅱ类元胞负荷准实测值与预测值Fig.4 Quasi-measured and predicted values of class Ⅱ cellular load
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XIAO Bai,LIANG Xuefeng,JIANG Zhuo,et al.A Method for Ascertaining Reasonable Maximum Value of Cellular Load in Spatial Load Forecasting[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2020,44(6):194-199.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20190521008

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History
  • Received:May 21,2019
  • Revised:October 10,2019
  • Adopted:
  • Online: March 21,2020
  • Published: