State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology (Chongqing University), Chongqing 400044, China

Under the goals of “carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality”, China is building a new power system with wind, photovoltaic and other renewable energy as dominant sources. With the change of energy structure and system form, the uncertainty on both sides of supply and demand of the power systems will be significantly enhanced, and system risks such as supply and demand mismatch will become more prominent. Accurate assessment of system risk level is of great significance to the planning and operation of the new power system. The typical risk characteristics of the new power system are analyzed, and a risk assessment framework for the new power system is illustrated. First, a three-level risk index system is sorted out to describe the systematic risks, which covers the upstream and downstream risks of supply and demand mismatch and risks related to carbon emissions. Then, a risk assessment method that reflects the risk characteristics of the new power system is investigated, in which the multi-source risk factors are characterized in the system state generation phase and the multi-level risk indices are calculated in the state analysis phase. Finally, through organically integrating with the risk assessment, an identification method for the weak link of the new power system is discussed to provide quantitative decision-making basis for the risk pre-control.

This work is supported by the Joint Research Fund in Smart Grid Under Cooperative Agreement Between National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) and State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) (No. U1966601).